Bank of America Global Research boosted its year-end projection for the STOXX 600 index to 530 from 500 on Friday, citing sustained resilience in global GDP following a recent truce in US-China trade talks.
The pan-European benchmark, which closed Thursday at 535.86, is still around all-time highs, indicating market optimism amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
According to the Wall Street Company, positive factors such as the trade truce and lower-than-expected US inflation data in May have boosted the global mood.
These factors have helped to stabilize financial markets that have been shaken by months of high uncertainty.
Nonetheless, BofA retains a cautious attitude on European equities generally, retaining a “negative” outlook on the region’s stock market.
“The main reason for the resilience is that these events (Israel-Iran conflict, trade war) have not yet translated into a clear-cut weakening of global growth,” the brokerage stated in its research note.
Despite the higher aim, the new projection suggests a tiny 1.1% decline from the index’s previous closing.
The revision reflects the brokerage’s understanding of short-term resilience, but it remains cautious owing to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Resilience amid geopolitical strain
In the face of escalating geopolitical friction, from the trade war to the Israel/Iran tensions, European equities have generally shrugged off the impact.
According to BofA, these concerns threaten global stability, but they suggested that so far, they have not yet meaningfully diminished growth momentum.
But the brokerage cautioned that the risks are not close to over.
Despite the benefit of lessening trade tensions and improving inflation numbers, obstacles like as continuing tariff pressures and the possible consequences of Middle East turmoil remain.
BofA warned that these changes could have an impact on global economic growth in the second half of the year.
Sector calls: mining up, airlines down
BofA upgraded European mining stocks to “overweight” from “market weight” in a change of sector strategy.
The brokerage cited compelling valuations after the group had underperformed for a long.
Also, a supportive factor was a weaker US dollar, which is generally positive for commodity prices and exporters.
On the other hand, airlines were lowered to “underweight” from “market weight.”
According to BofA, it sees the sector as being at risk of higher oil prices, particularly if the situation in the Middle East spirals even further out of control.
In an already turbulent operating environment for carriers, higher energy costs could tighten margins and reduce demand.
STOXX 600 outlook is mixed
The STOXX 600’s impressive performance this year has occurred against a backdrop of mixed economic indicators. While certain sectors of the global economy are resilient, others remain vulnerable.
BofA’s revised projection seeks to reconcile these dynamics by recognizing short-term strength while being cautious about structural and geopolitical risks.
In summary, the brokerage’s higher year-end prediction for the STOXX 600 indicates increased near-term optimism but does not represent a significant shift in mood.
Investors are being cautioned against complacency as the index approaches record highs.
Risks associated with trade policies and geopolitical turmoil remain significant concerns that may impact market direction in the months ahead.
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