Inflation ticked up slightly in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in its March release. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3 percent last month, up from 0.2 percent in January. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation was unchanged at 2.4 percent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2 percent in February, down from 0.3 percent in January. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation was unchanged at 2.5 percent.
The uptick in headline CPI reflected rising food and energy prices. Shelter, which accounts for about one-third of the index, rose 0.2 percent and was, according to the BLS, “the largest factor in the all items monthly increase.” Food prices rose 0.4 percent, with food at home increasing 0.4 percent and food away from home rising 0.3 percent. The index for energy also increased in February, rising 0.6 percent, driven by a 0.8 percent increase in gasoline prices. These figures reflect price data collected before the recent spike in oil from the conflict involving Iran and the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The easing in core CPI reflected a mixed picture across categories. Medical care posted the largest increase among core components, rising 0.5 percent, followed by apparel, which surged 1.3 percent. Airline fares rose 1.4 percent, and household furnishings and operations increased 0.3 percent. Prices also rose for education.
Offsetting these gains were declining prices for communication, which fell 0.5 percent, used cars and trucks, which declined 0.4 percent, and motor vehicle insurance, which fell 0.3 percent. Personal care also declined. In short, the categories that saw lower prices more than offset those where prices rose, pulling core inflation below its January pace.
While the year-over-year figures continue to show gradual disinflation, the recent three-month trend tells a somewhat different story. Inflation averaged 0.27 percent per month across December (0.3 percent), January (0.2 percent), and February (0.3 percent), which is equivalent to a roughly 3.2 percent annual rate. That is well above the year-over-year figure of 2.4 percent, suggesting that the recent pace of price increases is running hotter than the trailing 12-month average. Part of that gap likely reflects missing housing data resulting from last year’s government shutdown that held down the year-over-year inflation rate.
Recent core CPI data tell a similar story. Core prices rose 0.2 percent in December, 0.3 percent in January, and 0.2 percent in February — an average monthly rise of roughly 0.23 percent, which is equivalent to a roughly 2.8 percent annual rate. That’s higher than the year-over-year core figure of 2.5 percent, meaning core inflation has also been running somewhat hotter in recent months compared to its year-over-year pace.
Although the Federal Reserve officially targets the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI), the steady February CPI report offers little reason to expect an imminent pivot toward easier policy. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are assigning a 99 percent probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its meeting next week. Markets’ expectations that the policy stance remains at least through July were modestly boosted as well.
Even with the real shock to the economy from higher oil prices, policymakers are likely to look past them as a temporary energy spike — especially if longer-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. More relevant for monetary policy is whether overall nominal spending — that is, the total amount of money households and businesses are spending across the economy — is growing at a pace consistent with stable prices. By that standard, the recent inflation data offer an ambiguous signal. While the year-over-year inflation numbers look reassuring, the three-month annualized pace above three percent suggests underlying demand is running somewhat stronger than the trailing 12-month figures imply.
Factoring in the latest labor market data, the picture is more mixed. February’s employment report showed a 92,000 decline in payrolls, a figure some observers have taken as evidence that the labor market is weakening. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.4 percent, and both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio were essentially unchanged. Wages are still rising at roughly a 3.8 percent annual pace, pointing to continued growth in nominal spending.
Even with a dip in payrolls, those dynamics remain broadly consistent with nominal spending expanding faster than would be needed to keep inflation at the Fed’s two-percent target over time. In that environment, easing policy too quickly could risk reigniting price pressures. For now, patience remains the safer course.
