Bitcoin is stuck in a tight band ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, with several analysts flagging a potential Wyckoff “spring” that could push prices below $80,000 before momentum rebuilds.
Flows and positioning remain skewed by US institutions, while safe-haven assets surge and macro uncertainty rises.
Bitcoin holds range as event risk builds
Bitcoin traded defensively around $88,000 after a move to $88,315, remaining trapped in a 60-day range between $85,000 and $94,000, according to Wintermute and TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph.
Material Indicators’ Keith Alan said a new daily “Trend Precognition” signal implies a high probability Bitcoin will not revisit yesterday’s low, after Monday’s brief dip below $87,000.
He added the daily close needs to hold above the 2026 open near $87,500 for strength, per his post cited by Cointelegraph.
Momentum and order books point to stabilization, not breakout
On CryptoQuant, Binance data shows daily price momentum is positive at approximately $1,676 with a momentum of 1.93%, a sign of a “quiet corrective move” after selling pressure rather than a strong bullish impulse, contributor Arab Chain wrote in a Quicktake.
Order-book signals suggest a “period of anticipation” rather than an imminent breakout.
Trader MartyParty used Wyckoff analysis to map a potential “spring” that could take BTC below $80,000 before rebounding, timing it around this week’s macro events, according to his commentary referenced by Cointelegraph.
US flows weigh, ETFs flip to outflows
Wintermute said US counterparties are net sellers, with a persistent Coinbase discount pointing to domestic pressure, while European accounts are marginal buyers and Asia is neutral.
The firm highlighted that “ETFs drive momentum in this market; when that bid disappears, you get choppy, directionless price action,” in its update.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest weekly outflow since February 2025 last week, reversing the strong inflows that accompanied January’s brief push toward $97,000, Cryptonews reported.
Who is selling, and who is not
On-chain metrics point to profit-taking rather than capitulation.
CryptoQuant’s Miners’ Position Index printed near -1.5, indicating miners are selling less than their 1-year average after monetizing inventory at $110,000 to $120,000 levels.
Whale exchange ratios are elevated, but deposits remain well below prior spikes, implying tactical distribution, per a note.
Macro backdrop, from the Fed to Dalio’s warning
The Federal Reserve sets policy on Wednesday, with rate cut expectations below 3%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool cited by Cointelegraph.
Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple, plus a new 25% tariff threat against South Korea, add to event risk, Cryptonews noted.
Ray Dalio warned the US is “on the brink” of shifting from Stage 5 pre-breakdown to Stage 6 systemic breakdown in his Big Cycle framework, citing unsustainable debt and social conflict.
Later stages may see “capital controls” and “reserve freezes,” he wrote in a long essay.
Meanwhile, gold rose above $5,066 and silver jumped 6.4% to $110.60, setting records as investors favored traditional havens, per Cryptonews.
What breaks the deadlock
Wintermute said “sixty days of compression” meeting heavy event risk suggests “something gives,” identifying $85,000 as key support and an ETF flow reversal as needed to clear the mid-$90k area.
B2 Ventures’ Arthur Azizov told Cryptonews that Bitcoin remains a risk asset, with a “base case” of consolidation that holds the $85,000 to $88,000 zone.
Price snapshot and levels to watch
Bitcoin traded at $88,553 earlier today and rose 1.4% as Asia opened, before slipping back below $88,000. The total crypto market cap stood at $3.06 trillion, down 0.18% on the day, per Cryptonews.
- $87,500 daily close level flagged by Material Indicators
- $85,000 as critical support, per Wintermute
- Wyckoff “spring” risk below $80,000, per MartyParty
- ETF flows and Coinbase premium for direction cues
- Momentum at 1.93% suggests stabilization, not breakout
With positioning cautious and catalysts stacked, a decisive move likely hinges on the Fed’s tone and whether ETF demand returns. Until then, range discipline and close attention to flow signals look prudent.
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