India’s intake of Russian crude is set to mark its weakest month in three years, reflecting how tighter US sanctions are affecting India and Russia’s oil trade.
December volumes are tracking lower despite some refiners returning to discounted barrels and expectations that purchases could rise again early next year, as per a Bloomberg report.
Data from shipping trackers and signals from refiners suggest the slowdown is concentrated around changes in procurement rather than a collapse in demand, with private and state processors responding differently to regulatory pressure and supplier availability.
Sanctions tighten supply routes
Russian crude deliveries to India are expected to average about 1.1 million barrels a day in December, according to shipping data from Kpler.
That would be the lowest level since November 2022, although still above an earlier estimate by Indian officials following the latest US clampdown on Russian energy trade.
Demand softened in recent months as buyers navigated heightened scrutiny from Washington.
Shipments fell in July, before edging higher as some refiners moved back to cheaper Russian barrels.
State-owned processors such as Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. were among those that resumed purchases after the mid-year dip.
Refiners adjust sourcing
The biggest near-term drag came from Reliance Industries Ltd., India’s largest private refiner.
The company paused buying Russian crude after the US sanctioned Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC in late October, allowing importers a month to wind down transactions with the two suppliers.
Reliance has since restarted sourcing from non-blacklisted producers.
The crude is being processed at its Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat, supplying fuels primarily for the domestic market rather than exports.
December flows dip
At their weakest point, Russian deliveries to India fell to as little as 712,000 barrels a day in the second week of December, before recovering later in the month, according to Kpler.
According to Bloomberg, the firm estimates imports reached about 1.8 million barrels a day in November.
Indian officials had predicted daily flows of around 800,000 barrels for December.
The slowdown also reflects reduced intake at several facilities. Kpler data show lower volumes to the HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd.
Mundra terminal and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. took no Russian barrels this month for the first time since September 2022.
Early 2026 recovery signs
Looking ahead, flows could find support from Nayara Energy Ltd., which is backed by Rosneft and sanctioned by Europe.
The company plans to postpone scheduled maintenance at its Vadinar refinery, originally slated for early next year.
That decision could allow higher processing runs and support additional Russian crude purchases once December’s disruption passes.
Together, these shifts point to a market recalibrating under sanctions rather than abandoning Russian supply altogether, with volumes likely to remain sensitive to policy moves and refinery operations.
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