The outlook for the global soybean market remains supportive for 2026, and much will depend on China’s policy on purchasing US soybeans, with the American biofuel policy also in focus, ING Group said.
The soybean market has shown remarkable resilience this year, shrugging off persistent trade tensions between the US and China.
Soybean prices have performed surprisingly well in 2025, even with the ongoing trade tensions.
Specifically, CBOT soybeans have shown stronger gains compared to both CBOT corn and wheat over the course of the year.
Market likely to tighten
Despite global soybean production being forecast to decline year-over-year, record-high demand is expected to result in a slight decrease in global soybean stocks by the end of the 2025-26 season, according to an ING Group report.
“The expected decline in global production this season is largely driven by the US,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said in the report.
Farmers reduced soybean plantings amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China, although strong yields helped to offset some of the decline in planted area.
Despite a projected 7.1% year-on-year drop in planted area, US soybean production is forecasted to decrease by a smaller margin of 2.8% year-on-year, totaling just under 116 million tonnes.
The outlook for the US soybean balance hinges on substantial purchases from China for the remainder of the season, as ending stocks are anticipated to fall year-on-year.
However, total US soybean export commitments are currently down 38% year-on-year, according to the latest USDA data available up until late October.
Further decline in stocks
“While it is still early to form a strong view of how the 2026/27 season will unfold, our numbers suggest we will likely see a further decline in global soybean stocks,” Patterson said.
“Our initial view is that global soybean production will be largely flat year-on-year, while consumption continues to grow.
ING Group is looking at a global deficit of about 12 million tonnes, which would leave the 2026-27 ending stocks at 110 million tonnes.
“This should be fairly supportive for soybean prices, with forecast stocks at their lowest level since 2022/23, while the stocks-to-use ratio would be the lowest since 2015/16,” Patterson noted.
This should provide good support to the market, although clearly much will depend on trade and biofuel policy.
In the US, an anticipated increase in soybean plantings is expected, driven by the thawing of US-China trade tensions and the likely resumption of significant Chinese purchases of US soybeans.
Although the 2026 planting season is still some time away, the shifting soybean/corn ratio suggests a greater area will be dedicated to soybeans, according to ING.
However, it is currently forecast that any gain from increased acreage will be negated by lower yields.
US-China trade tensions
Despite escalating trade tensions between the US and China, which have severely disrupted US soybean exports to China, soybean prices have remained strong this year.
Historically, China purchased over 50% of total US soybean exports, making the recent halt in trade a major concern for US farmers.
For instance, in September and October 2025, China did not import any US soybeans, a situation not seen since November 2018.
Following a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi, China has reportedly resumed US soybean purchases.
Initial reports indicated promises to buy 12 million tonnes before the end of 2025 (a deadline that appears to have been extended to February 2026), with a subsequent agreement for 25 million tonnes annually for the following three years.
However, China has not confirmed these commitments.
“If these purchases materialise, it should ensure that the US domestic balance is not carrying large stocks into the next season, as some have feared,” Patterson said.
A commitment from China to purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually would align closely with the volume bought in 2023-24.
However, this figure is lower than the average purchase of approximately 32 million tonnes recorded between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 marketing years, according to ING.
Therefore, we will still need to see the US finding alternative export markets and/or increasing the domestic crush.
And the latter is something we have seen grow in recent years due to increased demand for feedstock from the renewable diesel sector.
US biofuel policy
A significant factor supporting the soybean market this year is the robust performance of the US soybean oil market, which has appreciated by over 30% year-to-date.
The proposed US biofuel policy is poised to significantly boost the market.
A key element of this proposal is the increase in the volume requirements for biomass-based diesel under the Renewable Fuel Standards, which are set to rise by approximately 67% to 5.61 billion gallons by 2026.
This substantial increase is highly supportive of soybean oil and soybean prices, given that soybean oil is a primary feedstock for biofuels.
Currently, biofuel production accounts for about 50% of US soybean oil usage.
Looking ahead to the 2025-26 period, the anticipated demand for soybean oil from the biofuel sector is expected to necessitate over 1.4 billion bushels of soybeans, which represents roughly a third of the total US soybean production, ING said.
“Clearly, if these proposals are finalised, they would support domestic soybean oil demand, which should also attract further investment in domestic soybean crush capacity,” Patterson said.
This trend is already evident in recent years, driven by growth in renewable diesel production capacity.
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