Government data indicated that India’s power output decreased for the second consecutive month in November.
This decline was attributed to mild weather and a slump in industrial activity, resulting in subdued electricity demand.
The nation’s total electricity generation in November experienced a notable decline, falling approximately 1% year-on-year to 134.26 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh).
This data, derived from Reuters calculations based on daily operational statistics provided by the federal grid regulator, Grid-India, marks a continued downward trend.
Consecutive declines and economic indicators
The November drop follows a more substantial annual decrease of 6% observed in October.
This sequential decline suggests a possible cooling in industrial or commercial power demand, or perhaps an increase in localised renewable generation not fully accounted for in the primary grid data.
The figures are crucial indicators of the country’s economic activity and energy consumption patterns.
While a 1% drop in November is less severe than the 6% contraction in October, two consecutive months of year-on-year reduction in electricity generation raise questions about the underlying health of key energy-intensive sectors and the overall energy requirement profile during this period.
India’s manufacturing sector experienced a notable slowdown in November, with its growth rate hitting a nine-month low.
Demand shift
The primary factor behind this deceleration was a significant drop in demand, heavily impacted by the imposition of steep US tariffs.
This trade friction has created headwinds for Indian exporters, leading to reduced production momentum across the sector as a whole.
The unprecedented dip in India’s power demand in November marked a significant deviation from established trends.
This instance was the first time in at least five years that the country had registered a decline in electricity consumption during this specific month.
Historically, analysts point out that the latter half of the calendar year is typically characterised by a notable surge in power demand.
This increase is primarily fueled by a post-monsoon recovery and subsequent acceleration in key sectors, particularly industrial and agricultural activity.
The robust demand observed during this period is usually a reflection of increased manufacturing output, heightened commercial operations, and the power requirements associated with winter cropping and irrigation, all of which generally rebound strongly following the end of the monsoon season.
The recent fall, therefore, signals a potential slowdown or shift in these underlying economic drivers, warranting closer scrutiny from policymakers and energy sector stakeholders.
“The early onset of winter has reduced cooling requirements, while previously, weak summer conditions and an early monsoon had already suppressed demand,” Ankit Jain, vice president of corporate ratings at ratings agency ICRA, was quoted in a Reuters report.
“These seasonal variations highlight the strong correlation between temperature patterns and electricity consumption, impacting both short-term demand forecasts and generation planning.”
Coal’s shrinking share
ICRA has sharply reduced its full-year power demand growth forecast for India, citing a slowdown in demand. The revised forecast is now 1.5%–2.0%, down from the earlier projection of 4.0%–4.5%.
A year-on-year drop of 5.8% was recorded in the country’s coal-fired electricity generation for November, consistent with an overall decrease in power demand.
India’s electricity output typically relies on coal-fired generation for about 75%.
However, Grid-India data indicates that this generation fell year-on-year in seven of the 11 months this year, marking the most frequent decline since 2020.
India’s increased reliance on renewable energy has led to a reduction in its dependency on coal for power generation.
This is highlighted by a significant surge in renewable energy output, which reached 18.55 billion kWh in November—a 24% increase compared to the previous year.
In the initial seven months of 2025, India achieved a significant milestone by adding a record 25.4 gigawatts of new capacity from solar and wind energy sources.
This development supports the nation’s ambitious goal to expand its non-fossil-fuel power capacity to 500 GW by the year 2030.
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