European markets opened on a mixed note on Tuesday, as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate decision.
The continent’s major indices displayed modest movements, with Germany’s DAX dropped 0.4% to 24,206.27 points, while the UK’s FTSE 100 opened nearly flat at 9,653 and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.26% to 8,217.38 points.
The cautious sentiment in the equity market came after a healthy rally on Monday, which propelled European markets to record highs in recent sessions.
The Fed moment: Steering through uncertainty
Tuesday’s market action was pretty subdued, and it’s not hard to see why. Everyone is essentially on pause until the Federal Reserve wraps up its meeting on Wednesday.
Investors are almost certain (about 96%, per CME FedWatch) that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points.
But what really matters now is what Jerome Powell says about the December meeting and how the Fed sees the economy from here.
The central bank is trying to balance a softening labor market with still-sticky inflation, and to make things trickier, the ongoing US government shutdown has limited the flow of fresh economic data.
You could see the uncertainty in Europe too. The STOXX Europe 600 plunged 0.29% to 575.04, a sign that investors prefer to wait rather than make bold moves before hearing from Powell.
Still, the broader tone in Europe wasn’t entirely cautious. Expectations of US rate cuts tend to benefit global equities, and that tailwind has been especially good for the UK market.
The FTSE 100 has pushed to record highs near 9,672, helped not just by Fed optimism but also by cooling inflation at home, which has boosted the chances of a Bank of England rate cut in December.
European markets: Geopolitics becomes a catalyst for consolidation
Underpinning the cautious market mood was the week’s backdrop of US-China trade developments.
News of an initial trade framework agreement and President Trump’s scheduled meeting with China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday had sparked significant rallies in recent sessions.
By Tuesday, however, much of this positive sentiment appeared priced in, explaining why markets opted for consolidation rather than continued advance.
The takeaway from Tuesday’s trading was pretty straightforward: the investors aren’t in the mood to make big moves until they hear directly from Powell.
Even in Germany, where the DAX managed a small gain, there was a clear tone of caution. The index is only up about 2.23% for the month and could still run into pressure with the European Central Bank meeting coming up on Thursday.
France wasn’t any more upbeat. French stocks stayed on the back foot as political tensions over the government’s budget continued to hang over the market.
That uncertainty has already had consequences as Moody’s recently revised France’s outlook downward, and that downgrade added another layer of caution for investors.
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