SovEcon, a leading agricultural analytics agency, has scaled up its projection for Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest.
The revised forecast now stands at 87.8 million metric tons (MMT), a notable rise from its previous estimate of 87.2 MMT.
This upward adjustment is primarily attributed to unprecedented and record-breaking yields observed across the Siberian region.
Favourable growing season in Siberia
Siberia, typically known for its challenging agricultural conditions, has experienced a particularly favorable growing season, contributing substantially to the overall national wheat output.
This exceptional performance in a key agricultural region is a critical factor driving the more optimistic outlook for the upcoming harvest.
The increased harvest volume is expected to have a significant impact on both domestic supply and Russia’s position in the global wheat export market, potentially influencing international grain prices and trade dynamics.
“The wheat upgrade is almost entirely due to Siberia (+0.6 MMT), where yields have reached record levels,” the agricultural consultancy said.
SovEcon has assessed the potential impact of early snowfall on the ongoing harvest and has concluded that it is unlikely to have a significant material effect.
Their analysis indicated that combining operations, which are crucial for harvesting various crops, can effectively continue even when several centimeters of snow have accumulated on the ground.
This resilience in harvesting capabilities, despite adverse weather conditions, suggests that the overall yield and quality of the harvest are not expected to be severely compromised by the unseasonal snowfall.
Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon said:
Siberia’s record yields are helping offset earlier losses in the South. However, the impact on near-term exports will be limited, as the region is far from ports.
Other crop forecasts
SovEcon has maintained its forecast for barley production in Russia at 19.0 MMT.
This figure indicated a stable outlook for this particular grain within the Russian agricultural sector.
However, the forecast for corn production in Russia has been revised downwards.
SovEcon has lowered its estimate for corn to 12.9 MMT, a decrease from the previous projection of 13.4 MMT.
This reduction suggests a potential shift in anticipated yields or other factors affecting the corn harvest in Russia.
Considering these adjustments, the overall projection for total grain and legume production in Russia has also been revised.
The current forecast stands at 134.5 MMT. This is a slight decrease from the previously estimated 134.9 MMT, reflecting the impact of the lowered corn estimate on the aggregated production figures for grains and legumes.
The corn forecast saw a reduction because yields in Russia’s Central region decreased significantly, SovEcon said.
Initially, these yields were near record highs at approximately 10 tonnes per hectare at the start of the harvest, but they subsequently dropped to about 8 tonnes per hectare, impacting the overall production outlook.
“This decline has been partly offset by stronger results in the South and record yields in the Volga Valley,” the consultancy said.
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