• Investing
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Portfolio Performance Today
Economy

AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.21 Percent in August 2025

by September 11, 2025
by September 11, 2025

Peter C. Earle

The AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.21 percent to 296.7 in August 2025. Our proprietary inflation index is up 2.9 percent since January 2025, and this increase marks its ninth consecutive monthly rise. Among the 24 price categories, thirteen saw price increases, two were unchanged, and nine saw declines in August. The largest price increases occurred in internet services and electronic information providers, tobacco and smoking products, and recreational reading materials, with the top three price declines seen in nonprescription drugs; admission to movies, theatres, and concerts; and purchase, subscription, and rental of videos.

AIER Everyday Price Index vs. US Consumer Price Index (NSA, 1987 = 100)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

On September 11, 2025, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its August 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The month-to-month headline CPI rose 0.4 percent (missing forecasts of a 0.3 percent increase) while the core month-to-month CPI number increased by 0.3 percent, which met expectations.

August 2025 US CPI headline and core month-over-month (2015–present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

The food index rose 0.5 percent in August after being unchanged in July. Food at home increased 0.6 percent, with all six grocery categories higher. Fruits and vegetables climbed 1.6 percent, led by tomatoes up 4.5 percent and apples up 3.5 percent. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs gained 1.0 percent, with beef rising 2.7 percent. Nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.6 percent, while both dairy products and cereals and bakery products edged up 0.1 percent. Other food at home also rose 0.1 percent. Food away from home advanced 0.3 percent, with full-service meals up 0.4 percent and limited-service meals up 0.1 percent.

The energy index increased 0.7 percent, reversing a 1.1 percent July decline, with gasoline up 1.9 percent, electricity up 0.2 percent, and natural gas down 1.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the core index rose 0.3 percent, matching July. Shelter advanced 0.4 percent, including owners’ equivalent rent up 0.4 percent, rent up 0.3 percent, and lodging away from home up 2.3 percent. Airline fares jumped 5.9 percent after a 4.0 percent rise in July. Used cars and trucks gained 1.0 percent, apparel rose 0.5 percent, new vehicles increased 0.3 percent, and household furnishings advanced 0.2 percent, while recreation and communication both slipped 0.1 percent. Medical care declined 0.2 percent, following a July increase of 0.7 percent, as dental services fell 0.7 percent and prescription drugs dropped 0.2 percent; physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent and hospital services were unchanged.

The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9 percent between August 2024 and August 2025, which was in line with the forecast. Surveys predicted a 3.1 percent increase in the year-over-year core CPI measure, which it did.

August 2025 US CPI headline and core year-over-year (2015 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

The food at home index rose 2.7 percent over the year ending in August. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs climbed 5.6 percent, while nonalcoholic beverages advanced 4.6 percent and other food at home increased 1.5 percent. Fruits and vegetables rose 1.9 percent, cereals and bakery products gained 1.1 percent, and dairy and related products edged up 1.3 percent. Food away from home increased 3.9 percent, with full-service meals up 4.6 percent and limited-service meals up 3.2 percent.

The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the year. Gasoline fell 6.6 percent and fuel oil declined 0.5 percent, while electricity increased 6.2 percent and natural gas surged 13.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the core index gained 3.1 percent, led by shelter up 3.6 percent. Additional increases were seen in medical care at 3.4 percent, household furnishings and operations at 3.9 percent, used cars and trucks at 6.0 percent, and motor vehicle insurance at 4.7 percent.

Core consumer prices accelerated in August 2025, rising 0.3 percent on the month and 3.1 percent year-over-year, with the headline index up 0.4 percent, the fastest since January. Goods inflation firmed to 0.3 percent, matching the strongest pace since mid-2023, as categories like new and used vehicles, apparel, and appliances advanced. Analysts debated the role of tariffs, noting increases in beef and tomatoes but also outright declines in tariff-exposed categories such as appliances and personal computers. Services inflation proved stickier, with airfares up 5.9 percent and lodging 2.3 percent, while shelter costs added 0.4 percent, their largest monthly gain this year.

Tariff pass-through appears to be plateauing. Estimates suggest the coefficient of tariff shocks to CPI fell to 0.03 in August from 0.23 in July, consistent with recent price drops in categories such as furnishings, sporting goods, and electronics. Firms that raised prices earlier in the year appear to be moderating amid consumer resistance, though average inflation across tariffed goods still rose slightly — a worrisome sign that opportunistic pricing may be creeping in. Diffusion indexes reinforce that price pressures remain broad: nearly half of core CPI components are still rising at an annualized rate above 4 percent, although the share of categories posting outright declines climbed to 36 percent, up from 27 percent last month.

Labor market data adds complexity to the inflation backdrop. Initial jobless claims surged to their highest level in nearly four years, reinforcing concerns that unemployment is trending higher after earlier payroll revisions cut growth estimates sharply. Real wages edged up just 0.7 percent from a year earlier, the weakest in over twelve months, underscoring that household purchasing power remains strained. While surges in discretionary categories like airfares and hotels point to still-resilient demand, the persistence of high shelter costs alongside rising claims suggests a softer labor market may be colliding with entrenched service-sector inflation.

Market reaction captured the tension. Fed funds futures now price about 27 basis points of easing at next week’s FOMC meeting, with expectations for roughly 72 basis points of cuts by year-end. Policymakers are likely to deliver an initial 25 basis point reduction, but today’s firmer inflation print complicates the trajectory for subsequent meetings. If core inflation continues to run at August’s pace, the probability of multiple cuts diminishes, leaving the Fed to balance labor-market softness against risks that tariff dynamics, shelter inflation, and opportunistic price increases could keep underlying inflation elevated well into the autumn.

0 comment
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

previous post
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.21 Percent in August 2025
next post
Lessons from Google Search Ruling: Markets Evolve, Bureaucrats Don’t

Related Posts

What I Saw in Milei’s Argentina

October 3, 2025

Tariffs Rest on Distrust of Citizens

October 3, 2025

White House says federal layoffs could hit ‘thousands’...

October 3, 2025

Democrats refuse to budge over Obamacare fight as...

October 3, 2025

Johnson shuts door on negotiating shutdown deal as...

October 3, 2025

‘Real consequences’: Food aid, flood insurance, FEMA funds...

October 3, 2025

Trump must triple severely outdated nuke arsenal to...

October 3, 2025

FLASHBACK: James Comey urged officials to always prosecute...

October 3, 2025

The agency staff Vought might recommend cutting and...

October 3, 2025

Trump’s DOGE savings dwarfed by Medicare, Social Security...

October 3, 2025

Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.

By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

Recent Posts

  • What I Saw in Milei’s Argentina

    October 3, 2025
  • Tariffs Rest on Distrust of Citizens

    October 3, 2025
  • Cyberattack halts Asahi production, disrupts Japan’s beer supply

    October 3, 2025
  • Europe markets open: Stoxx 600 rises 0.4%, extending its record-setting rally

    October 3, 2025
  • Bitcoin ETFs see over $600M in inflows as BTC price nears $120K

    October 3, 2025
  • Stockholm leads Europe in IPO activity with $6.8 billion raised

    October 3, 2025

Editors’ Picks

  • 1

    Meta executives eligible for 200% salary bonus under new pay structure

    February 21, 2025
  • 2

    Walmart earnings preview: What to expect before Thursday’s opening bell

    February 20, 2025
  • 3

    New FBI leader Kash Patel tapped to run ATF as acting director

    February 23, 2025
  • 4

    Cramer reveals a sub-sector of technology that can withstand Trump tariffs

    March 1, 2025
  • 5

    Anthropic’s newly released Claude 3.7 Sonnet can ‘think’ as long as the user wants before giving an answer

    February 25, 2025
  • 6

    Nvidia’s investment in SoundHound wasn’t all that significant after all

    March 1, 2025
  • 7

    Pop Mart reports 188% profit surge, plans aggressive global expansion

    March 26, 2025

Categories

  • Economy (2,770)
  • Editor's Pick (279)
  • Investing (185)
  • Stock (1,885)
  • About us
  • Contact us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Copyright © 2025 Portfolioperformancetoday.com All Rights Reserved.

Portfolio Performance Today
  • Investing
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Portfolio Performance Today
  • Investing
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
Copyright © 2025 Portfolioperformancetoday.com All Rights Reserved.

Read alsox

FLASHBACK: Biden shrugs off Hur report when...

May 17, 2025

80 Years After Total Surrender, Japan’s Strong...

August 15, 2025

Iran, Israel and US agree that Islamic...

June 26, 2025