The accuracy of Britain’s economic data has come under fresh scrutiny after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) admitted to a mistake in its retail sales figures.
On Friday, the ONS said sales volumes grew by 1.1% in the first half of 2025, lower than the 1.7% previously reported. The error stemmed from how statisticians seasonally adjusted the data, raising questions about the reliability of official numbers that guide Bank of England rate-setters and government policy.
The revision has also altered perceptions of consumer behaviour at a time when spending is critical for the country’s recovery.
ONS correction lowers retail sales growth to 1.1%
The ONS said revisions to retail sales figures reveal weaker-than-thought consumer activity. Sales volumes rose 1.1% in the first six months of 2025, instead of the earlier 1.7% estimate.
Supermarket and mail-order sales saw the heaviest revisions. For instance, supermarket sales were initially expected to have risen 5.5% in April but were later recalculated at just 0.7%.
The revision impacts GDP only marginally. The ONS said first-quarter GDP growth remains unchanged at 0.7%, and upcoming July GDP estimates are not affected. Retail sales contribute around 4.8% to the UK’s GDP.
Data reliability concerns deepen after repeated revisions
This latest adjustment adds to concerns over the accuracy of UK statistics. Problems have already affected key datasets, including labour market, inflation, GDP, and retail sales.
The repeated revisions have made it harder for policymakers to assess the health of the economy.
The July retail sales release was delayed by two weeks, with the ONS citing the need for “further quality assurance”.
Analysts say official statistics have struggled to keep pace with changes such as shopping shifts driven by TikTok and seasonal variations.
The ONS admitted its system had not properly accounted for holidays like Easter moving between March and April.
Errors also stemmed from mismatches between data collection periods and calendar months. The agency said both problems have now been corrected.
Revised figures show first back-to-back monthly rise since early 2025
Despite weaker half-year growth, July data pointed to an improvement. Retail volumes rose 0.6% month-on-month, following a 0.3% gain in June that was revised down.
This marked the first consecutive monthly increase since the start of the year, and exceeded analysts’ forecasts of 0.2%.
The new figures shift the narrative that consumers were recovering from cautious spending patterns. Instead, the revisions show households have been more restrained than previously thought, limiting their contribution to growth.
ONS pledges improvements after repeated errors
The revisions prompted the ONS to outline measures for restoring trust in its statistics. James Benford, director general of economic statistics, apologised for the delay and said the agency will allocate more resources to improving survey quality.
The ONS has said its new improvement plans will focus on transparency, quality checks, and clearer reporting to data users.
These measures aim to reassure markets, ministers, and rate-setters that the numbers they rely on accurately reflect consumer behaviour.
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