BYD has lowered its sales target for this year by as much as 16% to 4.6 million vehicles, Reuters reported earlier today, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.
The cut reflects the Chinese electric vehicle maker’s slowest annual growth in five years and signals that its era of record-breaking expansion may be ending.
The company, which is China’s largest automaker, told analysts in March that it was targeting sales of 5.5 million vehicles in 2025.
However, the goal has been revised downward several times in recent months, according to the people cited in the report.
The latest figure of at least 4.6 million vehicles was communicated internally and to some suppliers last month to guide planning.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the target remains subject to change depending on market conditions.
What’s behind BYD’s sales forecat
BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares fell further after the report, dropping 3.1% in afternoon trading from a 1.4% decline earlier in the day.
The report noted that the new target is below several recently lowered analyst forecasts.
Deutsche Bank this week estimated 4.7 million vehicles, while Morningstar put its forecast at 4.8 million.
The 4.6 million sales target represents a 7% increase from last year, but would mark the slowest growth since 2020, when sales fell 7%.
The downward revision follows a 30% drop in BYD’s quarterly profit last week, its first decline in more than three years.
As per the report, the weaker outlook to intensifying competition from rivals such as Geely Auto and Leapmotor.
Media reports from June previously suggested that BYD had slowed production and delayed capacity expansion at its Chinese factories.
The latest move underscores broader deflationary pressures in China, where a prolonged housing downturn has weighed on domestic demand.
Through the first eight months of this year, BYD has met just 52% of its original 5.5 million vehicle target, as per the report.
Signs of slowdown in the core market
Despite its rapid rise in recent years, BYD is showing signs of strain in China, which accounts for nearly 80% of its sales.
The company’s sales of economy cars priced under 150,000 yuan ($21,000) — a key segment in its domestic market — fell 9.6% in July compared with a year earlier, according to the report.
By comparison, Geely’s sales in the same price bracket surged 90% year-on-year in July.
Geely has also raised its own 2025 sales target to 3 million vehicles from 2.71 million, its executives said during an August earnings call.
BYD’s production has now contracted for two consecutive months through August, Reuters said, marking its first back-to-back monthly decline since 2020.
Over the past four years, BYD transformed from an EV upstart into a global leader by producing much of its output in-house, which helped it control costs while introducing new features.
Its sales of pure EVs and plug-in hybrids grew tenfold between 2020 and 2024, reaching 4.3 million vehicles — placing it alongside General Motors and Ford in global sales.
But with intensifying competition, weakening demand, and signs of saturation in its home market, Reuters reported that the company’s breakneck pace of growth may be slowing.
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