Leading agricultural consultancy SovEcon has revised upwards its projection for Russian wheat exports during the 2025-26 marketing season.
The firm now anticipates Russia to ship a robust 43.7 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat, an increase of 0.4 mmt from its previous forecast.
This upward revision underscores Russia’s growing dominance in the global wheat market.
Revised forecast and growth
The new forecast for 2025-26 highlights a significant year-on-year increase in export volumes.
In the preceding 2024-25 season, Russia successfully exported 40.8 mmt of wheat, a figure that already established its position as a major supplier.
The projected 43.7 mmt for the upcoming season represents a substantial 7.1% growth over the previous year’s performance, indicating strong production capabilities and competitive pricing from Russian suppliers.
The US Department of Agriculture projects Russian wheat exports at 46.0 mmt.
SovEcon scaled up its forecast for wheat exports for the 2025-26 season. However, shipments continue to remain historically low in the first months of the season.
Factors influencing upward revision
This optimistic revision is primarily attributed to highly favorable crop prospects, suggesting robust growth and a strong harvest.
This positive outlook for exports has outweighed the current low shipment figures, leading to an improved forecast for the season as a whole.
The export forecast has been adjusted upwards after the production estimate rose to 85.4 mmt from 83.6 mmt in July. This compares to 82.6 mmt harvested by Russian farmers a year prior.
Crop prospects in the Urals and Siberia improved, leading to an upward revision, SovEcon said.
The consultancy said:
Despite relatively good crop prospects, we are not ready to raise the estimate more significantly given the sluggish start of the export campaign.
According to SovEcon, cumulative wheat exports for July and August reached 6.1 mmt.
This figure is notably lower than the 9.9 mmt exported during the same period last year and falls short of the five-year average of 8.1 mmt.
September export figures are also expected to be historically low.
Challenges and market dynamics
This season has seen a decrease in Russian wheat purchases by major importers.
Shipments to Egypt totaled 1.1 mmt in July–August, a decrease from 1.5 mmt in the previous year. Similarly, Algeria’s imports fell from 0.5 mmt last year to 0.1 mmt.
Importers might look to Argentina and Australia for new crops in the coming months, as the outlooks in those regions are getting better, SovEcon said.
Australia’s farm ministry increased its 2025-26 wheat production forecast in September to 33.8 mmt, a 22% rise over the 10-year average and an increase from June’s estimate of 30.6 mmt.
Market participants anticipate that Argentina’s wheat production will surpass 20 mmt, an increase from 18.6 million metric tons last year.
Meanwhile, despite a sharp drop in energy prices, the ruble has remained relatively stable, hovering around 80 per dollar since early August.
Falling FOB prices are exacerbating the challenges faced by Russian exporters, the consultancy said. In fact, export prices dropped by $7/mt to $233/mt from mid-to-late August alone.
“We expect some growth in exports as domestic wheat prices in ruble terms continue to decline,” Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon said.
In recent weeks, exporters’ bids have fallen sharply. Against this backdrop, we expect to see further declines in export prices and a gradual recovery in shipments.
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