China is reshaping global soybean trade flows by turning to Argentina and Uruguay for record shipments, as the trade conflict with the US continues to disrupt agricultural commerce.
Chinese importers are set to secure up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from the two South American producers in the 2025/26 marketing year ending next August, a sharp increase from past years.
The purchases reflect Beijing’s broader strategy to diversify supply sources, enhance food security, and reduce reliance on US farm products, which have long been a focal point of tariff battles between the world’s two largest economies.
China’s soybean demand shifts to South America
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs shows that between September 2024 and July 2025, the country imported 5 million tons of soybeans from Argentina and Uruguay.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, importers have already booked 2.43 million tons from the two countries for shipment between September and May.
This includes 1.575 million tons scheduled for September loading, 660,000 tons for October, and 66,000 tons each for November, December, and May 2026.
The volume marks a significant rise from previous years and builds on China’s already large purchases from Brazil, which has been its primary supplier in recent years.
Combined, the three South American nations are expanding their market share at the expense of US farmers, who are witnessing shrinking access to China’s soybean market.
US exports hit as trade war continues
Soybeans have been at the centre of the trade war between Washington and Beijing since the first wave of tariffs was imposed during former US President Donald Trump’s term.
The US has traditionally relied on fourth-quarter sales, when freshly harvested supplies enter the market, but this year China has not booked any US soybean purchases for that period.
The decline is reflected in customs data: in 2016, the US supplied 20% of China’s agricultural imports, but by 2024 its share had dropped to 12%. By contrast, Brazil’s share rose from 14% in 2016 to 22% in 2024.
The absence of US shipments is giving South American exporters a competitive edge at a crucial moment for global trade dynamics.
Argentina and Uruguay benefit from bumper harvests
Argentina’s improved soybean output has made it a reliable supplier. The US Department of Agriculture reported a 2024/25 harvest of 50.9 million tons, up from 48.2 million tons in 2023/24 and well above the 25 million tons in 2022/23, when a severe drought hit yields.
Uruguay has also increased production, with 2024/25 output reaching 4.2 million tons compared to 3.3 million tons in the previous year.
These bumper harvests are enabling both countries to capitalise on China’s demand, offering an alternative supply chain that reduces the risks associated with tariff-driven disruptions between the US and China.
Global trade implications of China’s soybean pivot
China’s decision to boost imports from Argentina and Uruguay represents more than just a shift in trade partners; it signals a long-term reconfiguration of global agricultural flows.
With China being the world’s largest soybean importer, its purchasing strategies significantly impact global pricing and supply chains.
By securing record volumes from South America, Beijing is reinforcing its food security strategy and lessening its dependence on US agriculture.
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