A tense calm has settled over Asian markets on Monday, with shares and crude oil drifting lower as investors watch the opening moves in a new, high-stakes chapter of global diplomacy.
After a suspenseful US-Russia summit ended without a clear resolution, the world now turns its focus to Washington, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is set to meet with Donald Trump in a confrontation that could set the tone for markets, energy, and geopolitics for months to come.
The mood across the region is one of profound caution. While shares in Japan managed to edge higher, bourses in Australia and South Korea retreated.
Futures for the S&P 500 inched up a mere 0.1%, and Brent crude dipped 0.3% as the lack of escalation from the US-Russia summit eased immediate supply fears. The dollar held steady, a barometer of a market waiting for its next major signal.
The summit’s shadow: from Alaska to the oval office
Friday’s meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin was the eye of the storm; Monday’s meeting in Washington is the storm itself.
Zelenskiy and his European allies arrive in the US capital anxious and apprehensive, desperate to learn what Trump may have committed to and fearful that Kyiv will be pressured into making “unpalatable concessions” to secure a peace deal.
While the US is expected to push the topic of territorial concessions demanded by Russia, Kyiv’s delegation will reportedly seek to pin down concrete security guarantees.
This uncertainty has left traders in a state of limbo. As Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC, noted, the end result from Friday’s summit is “more of the same,” with Trump now appearing to put any new energy sanctions on hold.
The focus, she suggests, may now shift to pressuring India and China to curb their purchases of Russian oil.
Still, the lack of a negative outcome is being seen as a tentative positive. “Hope is a powerful thing and this outcome will keep the slow grind of higher risk sentiment alive and well,” said Jordan Rochester, head of macro strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Corp.
A bullish outlier on Dalal Street
While the rest of Asia waits, the Indian market is preparing to charge ahead. The Sensex and Nifty 50 are poised for a significant gap-up opening on Monday, a stark divergence from the region’s cautious mood.
The trends on the Gift Nifty indicated a powerful start, trading around 24,915—a premium of nearly 230 points over the Nifty futures’ last close.
Returning from a long weekend after celebrating its 79th Independence Day on Friday, the Indian market is being fueled by a slew of positive domestic developments.
The most significant of these was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promise of “generational” GST reforms before Diwali, a move that could ignite stocks across the auto and FMCG sectors.
This, combined with a recent ratings upgrade and relief that the Trump-Putin summit did not worsen the global outlook, has created a bullish cocktail.
The Nifty 50, having already snapped a six-week losing streak, now looks to test last week’s high of 24,702. While global uncertainty—particularly over potential US tariffs—remains a risk, the domestic narrative has given the bulls a clear reason to run.
As the week unfolds, the geopolitical drama will share the stage with critical economic events.
Investors will be keenly watching Japanese inflation data, China’s loan prime rates, and, most importantly, the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat at Jackson Hole, where a speech from Chairman Jerome Powell will be scoured for clues on a potential September interest-rate cut.
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