China is no longer building nuclear weapons solely for deterrence — it’s using them to fuel its ambitions as a dominant power in Asia, seeking to intimidate U.S. allies and undermine American influence across the region, according to a new report.
The Hudson Institute warns that by the mid-2030s, China is expected to become a nuclear peer of the United States in both quantity and quality, fielding a modern, survivable and diverse arsenal that includes over 1,000 warheads, a fully developed nuclear triad and tactical nuclear capabilities.
However, Beijing’s goal isn’t to win a nuclear war, the report argues. It’s to manipulate and degrade trust in America’s nuclear umbrella, particularly among U.S. allies in East and Southeast Asia. By sowing doubt that Washington would defend them in a crisis, China hopes to pressure countries like Japan, the Philippines and South Korea into strategic passivity, giving Beijing more room to act — including a potential move on Taiwan — without triggering a broader allied response.
‘The purpose of amplifying uncertainty is to manipulate notions of risk to China’s advantage,’ the report states. ‘This is primarily about exacerbating hesitancy among U.S. allies by exploiting persistent fears of abandonment and doubts regarding America’s commitment.’
China’s military strategy blends rapid nuclear modernization with psychological operations and information warfare. The country is investing in advanced technologies such as hypersonic boost-glide vehicles and fractional orbital bombardment systems — space-based platforms that can deliver nuclear strikes from low-Earth orbit with little warning. Its warheads can now be launched from silos, submarines, road-mobile launchers and aircraft.
The report urges the U.S. to ‘abandon the false hope of arms control’ with China and instead embrace a doctrine of strategic ambiguity and instability, one that deters Beijing through strength and unpredictability rather than bilateral disarmament.
President Donald Trump has expressed interest in future arms control talks with both China and Russia, but analysts say Beijing has shown little genuine interest in limiting its nuclear forces.
The Hudson report devotes case studies to three key allies — the Philippines, Japan and South Korea — and how China uses nuclear intimidation differently in each case.
Philippines
While Manila is more concerned with gray-zone conflicts in the South China Sea, China may increasingly use implied nuclear threats to dissuade it from hosting U.S. missile systems like the Typhon launcher, which can strike deep into Chinese territory. China has already begun deploying messaging via state-linked outlets that hint at targeting Philippine-based assets.
Japan
Heavily dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella but constrained by strong domestic anti-nuclear sentiment, Tokyo faces an information campaign from Beijing designed to shake confidence in U.S. commitments. China applies psychological pressure to prevent Japan from building counterstrike capabilities or assisting in a conflict over Taiwan.
South Korea
Seoul remains narrowly focused on North Korea’s nuclear threat, not China’s. It has been reluctant to fully align with U.S. efforts to deter Beijing, and it’s unclear whether South Korea would permit U.S. forces to use its bases in the event of a Taiwan contingency. China, the report says, is working to keep Seoul compartmentalized and disengaged from the broader East Asian conflict.
The report outlines four core recommendations:
- Abandon arms control illusions: China’s opacity and doctrine of ambiguity make traditional arms control agreements unworkable.
- Avoid allied nuclearization: U.S. allies like Japan and Australia should resist calls to build their own nuclear arsenals, which could backfire strategically.
- Double down on conventional deterrence: Strengthen and modernize allied conventional forces to raise the cost of Chinese aggression.
- Fight fire with fire in the information domain: Expose China’s nuclear coercion publicly and link allied military buildups directly to Beijing’s behavior.
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‘Washington and its allies must show that China’s buildup is backfiring — leading not to fear and passivity, but to renewed resolve and regional rearmament,’ the report says.
The report lands ahead of the Pentagon’s forthcoming global force posture review, expected later this year. The Department of Defense is widely expected to announce a shift in forces from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, reflecting the Biden administration’s—and potentially Trump’s — emphasis on great power competition with China.
