SAP share price has crashed in the past few weeks, erasing some of the gains it made after its first-quarter results. It plunged to a low of €247 on Thursday, its lowest level since April 28. It has dropped by over 9.35% from its highest point in May.
SAP business is doing well as demand rises
SAP is a top technology company that provides software to thousands of clients globally. It is the biggest player in the enterprise resource planning industry, and it competes with firms like Oracle, Microsoft, Infor, and Epicor.
The company has also increased its service offerings to include solutions like business applications in areas like human capital management and supply chain management.
SAP is also a top provider of cloud computing services that its US peers like Amazon and Microsoft dominate. It is also involved in areas like data management and analytics.
SAP is widely used by companies in all industries, with some of its top clients being Delta Air Lines, Cintas, Shiseido, Siemens, Apple, and Walmart.
The most recent financial results showed that SAP business is firing on all cylinders as demand for its ERP, cloud, and artificial intelligence solutions jump.
Its cloud computing backlog jumped by 28% to €18.2 billion, while its cloud revenue soared by 27%. Its cloud revenue is growing faster than its bigger competitors like Microsoft and Amazon, which experienced 20% and 17% growth rates.
SAP’s quarterly revenue jumped by 11% to €9 billion, beating the average revenue estimate of €8.8 billion. Its cloud revenue rose by 27% to almost €5 billion, while its cloud ERP Suite’s revenue jumped by 34% to €4.2 billion.
Business growth to continue
SAP’s management believes that the company’s business will continue doing well this year. For one, there are signs that its business is tariff or recession-resistant because it offers essential services and 86% of its revenue comes from recurring services.
SAP’s cloud revenue will be between €21.6 and €21.9 billion this year, while its cloud and software revenue will be between €33.1 billion and €33.6 billion.
Most importantly, the company’s free cash flow will almost double from last year’s €4.2 billion to €8 billion. This growth will accelerate after the company’s restructuring efforts that cost it about €3 billion euros.
SAP has always been conservative when issuing its guidance, meaning that it will likely do better than estimates.
These numbers will help it to continue its share repurchases and dividends. There is a likelihood that the company will announce a new share repurchase program this year.
It announced a €5 billion program in 2023, which is expected to end in the second half of the year. The company may announce a similar program for the coming years as its free cash flow rising.
SAP share price analysis
The daily chart shows that the SAP stock price peaked at €273 in May, mirroring the performance of most companies. It has now pulled back by almost 10% and moved to a low of €247, its lowest point since April 29.
The stock has moved below the 50-day moving average. Worse, there are signs that it has formed a double-top pattern around the €273 resistance level and a neckline at €208.
Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, with the immediate target being at €232, its lowest level on March 14. A drop below that level will invalidate the inverse head and shoulders pattern, and point to more downside, potentially to €208, the lowest swing in April. A move above the double-top at €273 will invalidate the bearish view.
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