Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) opened some 30% down on Friday after reporting in-line financials for its fiscal Q1 but leaving investors unsatisfied with the forward guidance.
LULU shares are being punished this morning as the market digests clear signs of slowing growth, especially in its key North American market.
While macro headwinds like tariffs remain a concern, experts believe a bigger problem facing the athleisure giant this year may be saturation in the US and Canada.
Growth is plateauing in its core regions, and Lululemon’s big bet on China as its next engine for expansion may prove to be riskier than initially hoped.
Including today’s plunge, LULU stock is down more than 35% versus its year-to-date high.
LULU shares hit by slowing North American momentum
According to David Swartz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, Lululemon saw weakness in its North American comparable sales in the first quarter as the retail giant has already reached maturity in the region.
“LULU already has stores in all major metropolitan regions in the US and Canada. It was almost a certainty that it would not be able to post the same kind of growth rates that it had in the past.”
Lululemon stock’s recent performance suggests it’s grappling with a combination of increased competition from brands like Alo Yoga and Vuori, and internal challenges, including a shakeup in its design leadership.
After the departure of its former head designer last year, the athletic apparel company has been navigating a transitional period that may have impacted product innovation and merchandising, Swartz argued in an interview with Yahoo Finance on Friday.
Lululemon stock faces risk in China expansion strategy
To counter the flattening growth at home, Lululemon has turned its attention abroad, especially to China, where it’s been rapidly opening new stores.
But the bet on China is looking increasingly precarious amid ongoing economic turbulence.
“China is a troubled market right now,” Swartz noted, pointing to weak consumer sentiment, high youth unemployment, and soft results across the apparel sector as warning signs.
While Lululemon’s brand awareness and market share in China remain low, leaving room for expansion, current conditions suggest that international growth may not accelerate fast enough to offset domestic stagnation.
All in all, the Morningstar analyst agreed Lululemon remains fundamentally well-positioned despite tariff-related headwinds, thanks to its pricing power and relatively limited manufacturing exposure to China.
However, he cautioned that the stock is unlikely to recover meaningfully unless the company either reignites growth in its core Americas segment or identifies a high-growth international market to scale into.
Still, Swartz maintains a $315 fair value estimate for the stock, implying roughly 20% upside from current levels.
That suggests the sharp post-earnings selloff may have been overdone, even as near-term challenges persist for the Vancouver-based athleticwear brand.
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