The XRP price remains under pressure after falling for five consecutive days, and moving to its lowest level since April 22. Ripple remains 37% below the highest point in January, meaning investors have lost billions of dollars in the past few months.
The likely catalyst for the XRP price is the upcoming approval of Ripple ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission. This article explores how high the coin will jump if it achieves the $8 billion inflows analysts at JPMorgan expect.
Odds of XRP ETF approval are high
XRP has become one of the most popular cryptocurrencies this year. As a result, it has had the most ETF applications by companies like Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Canary, and Grayscale.
While odds on Polymarket have fallen from 84% in April to 76% today, most analysts believe that the approval is just a matter of time. While the SEC has an October deadline, the approval will likely happen sooner.
Besides, the SEC is now being led by Paul Atkins, a lawyer who has been supportive of the industry for a long time.
The SEC has already taken several actions to support the industry. For example, it has ended several lawsuits against companies like Ripple Labs, Uniswap, Coinbase, and Immutable.
JPMorgan analysts believe that the XRP ETFs will have over $8 billion in inflows in the first year. If accurate, this would make these ETFs higher than Ethereum ones.
Ripple price outlook if the ETFs hit the JPMorgan outlook
It is hard to predict how high the XRP price would go after the ETF approvals, since there are many moving parts.
One easy way to predict this is to add $8 billion to the coin’s market cap, which in this case, would bring its valuation from $123 billion to $131 billion.
XRP has a circulating supply of 58.5 billion. Therefore, dividing the two numbers would bring the XRP price to $2.25, a few points above the current level. This approach, however, has limitations, and there are chances that the price would rise higher than the forecast.
Another approach is to use a certain multiplier. A more conservative approach is to compare how Bitcoin has jumped since its ETF application. It has soared by over 210% since the approval in January last year.
Assuming that the XRP price rises by the same margin, there is a likelihood that the coin will surge to $5.25. Such a move would bring the coin’s market cap to over $388 billion, which is reasonable.
Read more: XRP price surges 6% as SEC acknowledges another XRP ETF proposal
XRP has other catalysts
The XRP price also has other catalysts that may push its value higher in the long term. First, Rippl Labs is aiming to disrupt the payment industry by having a solution that is faster and cost-effective than SWIFT. This goal may become achievable since the Ripple vs SEC case ended recently.
Further, Ripple Labs is becoming a major player in the stablecoin industry as its RLUSD market cap has jumped to over $317 million. It is also seeking to acquiring Circle, a top company that runs USDC, which has over $61 billion in assets.
XRP price will benefit as Visa anticipates that the stablecoin market will be worth over $1.6 trillion in the next few years.
XRP price has bullish technicals
Further, as the chart above shows, XRP price has strong technicals that will push it higher over time. That’s because it has formed a falling wedge pattern, which is made up of descending and converging trendlines. It has also formed a bullish pennant pattern, pointing to a rebound to the year-to-date high of $3.4.
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