Lloyds share price has continued rising this year, and is now hovering at its highest level since 2008. It jumped to a high of 72.65p, up by over 85% from its lowest level this year, giving it a market cap of over $54 billion, making it one of the biggest banks globally. This article provides a Lloyds stock forecast ahead of earnings.
Lloyds share price analysis
The monthly chart shows that the LLOY stock price has staged a strong comeback, rising from a low of 9.9 in 2009 to the current 72.65p.
It has moved above the important resistance level at 59.20p, the highest swing in 2015 and December 2019. This price is the upper side of the ascending triangle pattern, a highly popular bullish sign.
The Lloyds share price is hovering near the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at 77.2p. Also, the two lines of the MACD indicator have moved above the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the overbought level.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 36, indicating that it is gaining momentum.
Therefore, the stock will likely continue soaring as bulls target the next key resistance level to watch being at 76p, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. A move above that level will signal more gains, up to the 61.8% retracement point at 98.9p, up by 35% above the current level. A drop below the key support at 59.20p will invalidate the bullish outlook.
LLOY stock chart | Source: TradingView
Lloyds Bank earnings ahead
The next important catalyst for the stock is its upcoming earnings, which will provide more insight into its business.
The most recent financial results showed that its statutory profit after tax dropped to £4.5 billion in 2024. This decline happened after the company added more provisions to its motor insurance liability. It added £700 million in the fourth quarter, bringing the total provisions to £1.2 billion.
The consensus estimate by analysts is that Lloyds net interest income rose to £3.25 billion in the last quarter. Its other income rose to £1.45 billion, bringing its net income for the quarter to £4.38 billion.
Analysts also anticipate that the company will increase its impairment charge to £239 million. Also, they expect that the profit for the period are £1.12 billion.
Lloyds share price has also done well because of its dividends and buybacks. It has boosted these payouts as it seeks to lower its risk-weighted provisions. Its CET1 ratio is expected to drop to 3.0% in the next financial year.
The other potential catalyst for the Lloyds share price will be the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision. Economists expect the central bank to cut interest rates in its upcoming meetings. Lower interest rates affect banks’ earnings by slashing their net interest income.
Lloyds stock price has also jumped in line with other European banks. For example, Barclays shares jumped to 300p, up from 120p last year. Other banks like HSBC, NatWest, Deutsche Bank, and Unicredit have all surged.
Read more: Move on Unicredit: Societe Generale stock is firing on all cylinders
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