The AMC stock price has remained under pressure this year, continuing a trend that started in May last year when it peaked at $11.88. It has retreated by 6% this year, lagging behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices that have moved to their all-time highs this year. So, how will the AMC share price trade after earnings on Tuesday?
Box Office growth in 2025
The AMC stock price has wavered as investors assess the Box Office outlook for 2025. Expectations are that this will be a fairly good year because, unlike in 2024, there was no strike in Holywood.
Therefore, some of the theatrical releases that were postponed in 2024 will likely come out this year, benefiting companies like AMC and Cinemark Holdings.
Expectations are that the Box Office revenues in the US and Canada will get to between $9.3 billion and $9.7 billion this year. Some analysts see the industry hitting about $10 billion in sales, with the global estimate being $33 billion. These numbers will be a big increase from the $33 billion they made last year.
There are several potential releases this year. The most notable of them will be Avatar: Fire and Ash, Jurassic World Rebirth, and Zootopia. Further, the most notable moves to watch wil be Captain America, Fantastic Four, and Thunderbolts.
AMC earnings ahead
The next key catalyst for the AMC share price will be the upcoming earnings, which will provide more color about its business.
Analysts expect these numbers to show that the company made strong improvements in the fourth-quarter. The revenue estimate is that it grew by 17.29% in the fourth-quarter to $1.3 billion.
If that is correct, the revenue figure will bring the annual figure to $4.63 billion, a 3.87% decline from a year earlier. While a slowdown is not a good thing, I believe that such a figure will be a good one for AMC because of the high comparisons since 2023 had the blockbuster movies like Oppenheimer and Barbie.
Analysts expect that AMC’s loss per share will improve from 54 cents to 16 cents, bringing the annual figure to $1.04. The annual loss per share for AMC will be $1.04 followed by 61 cents in 2025.
These numbers, together with the box office sales for 2024, are a sign that AMC’s business is doing well.
The most recent results showed that AMC’s revenue stood at $1.3 billion in the third quarter, while its EBITDA was $161.8 million. This was one of the best adjusted EBITDAs in the company’s history and the loss trajectory improved. The company also had strong admissions, with the revenue per patron rising.
Additionally, the company has improved its balance sheet by pushing its $2.9 billion maturities to 2029. Doing that means that it s not in an urgent place to pay off its debts.
Read more: AMC stock price analysis: Wyckoff Theory points to more gains
AMC stock price forecast
The daily chart shows that the AMC share price has remained under pressure since May last year when it peaked at $11.8. It has now crashed below the key support at $5.60, the highest swing in June, July, and December last year.
The stock moved below the 50-day moving average, while the Average True Range (ATR) has continued moving downwards. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained at 50.
AMC has a short interest of about 8.7%, which is high. This means that the stock may go through a substantial short squeeze after publishing its financial results. If this happens, the key reference level to watch will be at $4.04, the lowest point on October 10, followed by $5.60, the highest swing in December. Such a move is about 65% above the current level.
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